Inter-market Technical

Inter-market Technical

12 - Dec – 2011

NIFTY – Last Close – 4866.70 [09-Dec-2011]

• The above Nifty wave count chart indicates bullish count structure in medium to long term.
• Nifty is moving within the falling channel from 12-Nov-2010.
• As per preferred wave count we consider the non standard triple combination pattern ended, the counts are marked as “(W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z)” and the internals are marked as “a-b-c”.
• Now minor wave “b” seems like completed and Nifty will be in the process of wave “c” of wave (A) / (W).
• According to Elliot wave principle wave “c” = 100% or 161.8% of wave “a”, the minimum 100% target comes around 5300.
• The sustained rally above 5400 will confirm the bullish wave structure for long term. 
• Unless violation of 4640(Close) our view remains bullish (Preferred View) and the above count will be in progress.  In-case of close below 4640 our alternate count will be in process. 

NIFTY – Last Close – 4866.70 [09-Dec-2011] 

• The above Nifty wave count chart indicates our alternate count.
• As per alternate wave count the non standard triple combination pattern still in the process, the counts are marked as “(W)-(X)-(Y)-(XX)-(Z)” and the internals are marked as “a-b-c”.
• The major wave (Z) is in the process toward 4350(Minimum Target).
• The wave “b” of wave (Z) completed and Nifty in the process of wave “c” of wave (Z).
• According to Elliot wave principle wave “c” = 100% or 161.8% of wave “a”, the minimum 100% target comes around 4350. Short term we can expect 4630.
• The sustained fall and close below 4630 will confirm the bearish out look.  

USDINR – Last Close – 51.87 [09-Dec-2011] 

• The above monthly chart indicates the bearish outlook in short to medium term.
• USDINR moves within the channel and now reacting from cluster resistance.
• After breach of triangle dollar rallied sharply and attained 100% target of triangle.
• Now rupee started gaining strength at the channel and median line.
• The arrow marked zones are earlier evidences to rupee’s momentum.
• Immediate support at 50.94 and resistance at 52.5 – 52.75.
• Unless violation of 53 levels rupee will retrace at least 50% and 61.8% of last rising leg from 43.85 to 52.75.
• On fall below 50.90 rupee will gain momentum toward 48.5 – 47.5.
• Overall one can sell USDINR at CMP with the stop of 53 for the target of 48.5 – 47.5.

NYMEX Crude – Last Close – 99.41 [09-Dec-2011]    

• The above crude weekly chart indicates bearish outlook in short term.
• After breach of falling channel on 18-10-2011 crude moved very well to the upper channel.
• Based on channel technique crude testing the cluster resistance placed around 102 which is both falling and rising channel line.
• At the 61.8% retracement level taken from 115 to 74.95 bears started gaining strength and consolidating at the resistance last couple of weeks.
• In addition key oscillators are placed with negative divergence.
• Overall we can expect crude will test 86 – 80 level in short to medium term.
• In the trade perspective, sell crude with strict stop of 103.5 for the target 86 to 80 band.

GOLD – Last Close – 1710.39 [09-Dec-2011]     

• The above gold weekly chart indicates bearish outlook in short term.
• The median line acted well resistance for Gold from long time (See the Brow Arrows).
• After breach of median line week ended on 29-07-2011, it rallied sharply to the upper line.
• At the top of 1920 Gold finished the major rising leg, and started correcting down.
• Now wave “c” is in progress toward 1600 – 1480 levels.
• The trendline acting as vital resistance for Gold.
• Unless violation of the trendline gold continues in corrective segment.
• In the trade perspective, Sell gold with the stop of 1762 on closing basis..
• The targets are placed around 1600 – 1480 band.